Life After the Tax Credit: Why Solar Will Thrive Without It
A Personal Story: Where It All Began
In October of 2008, I found myself at a crossroads.
I needed to renew my engineering license in Puerto Rico and, like every engineer, I needed Continuing Education credits. Around that same time a new wave was beginning to arrive: solar energy.
Mech-Tech offered a training course on solar photovoltaics. It ran for two months, every Saturday. My father, a master electrician, also needed CE credits to renew his license. We decided to take the course together. Looking back, those Saturdays became more than education. They were memories: learning side-by-side, talking over lunch afterward, planning how these new technologies could shape our professional life and our personal future.
In early 2009 I lost the job I had at the moment. Instead of looking at it as a problem, I saw it as an opportunity. I took what I learned and stepped into solar. The timing could not have been better.
Solar Before Incentives: Puerto Rico and ARRA
At that moment, solar panels cost nearly $8.00 per watt without batteries. If you added a battery system, the price went higher. There was no tax credit. There were no 30 percent incentives. And yet the industry began to grow.
President Obama launched the ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act) to stimulate renewable energy. In Puerto Rico, additional programs were created to accelerate adoption. We began installing solar on dairy farms, aquaponic facilities, warehouses, and universities. These were not motivated by personal tax credits. They were motivated by production, reliability, and the need to control energy costs in a fragile grid.
We made projects work at $8.00 per watt because energy was already essential, and reliable electricity had real value.
The Move to Florida and the 30% Tax Credit
In 2016, I decided to move to Florida.
Here, the tax credit was well known. It became part of every sales presentation. For years, it was a key message:
You get 30% back from the government.
In those early conversations, I remember speaking with others in the industry:
The average cost of solar was around $4.00 per watt
Utility rates were around 8 cents per kilowatt-hour
Nine years later, the situation is very different:
Solar has dropped to an average of $2.75 per watt
Electricity prices have doubled
And yet we still talk about the tax credit as if solar depends on it.
It does not.
The “Big Beautiful Bill” and the End of the Tax Credit
With the approval of the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill”, the federal tax credit is scheduled to end. For many companies, this creates fear. They worry that without a 30% incentive, customers will stop buying.
I disagree.
If we look at the history, tax credits have only been a chapter in the story. Solar existed before the credit, it survived before the credit, and it will continue afterward.
The fundamentals have changed. Today, solar is no longer a luxury or a political talking point. It is a necessity.
The Truth: We No Longer Need the Tax Credit
Let’s look at the data in simple terms:
In 2008: solar was $8 per watt, electricity was cheaper
In 2016: solar was $4 per watt, electricity was still relatively cheap
In 2025: solar is around $2.75 per watt, electricity has doubled
If we include inflation, the real cost of solar has dropped dramatically. Meanwhile, utility rates continue to rise faster than inflation.
This means:
The tax credit has not been the reason solar makes sense.
Math has been the reason.
Solar is now cheaper than ever, while electricity is more expensive than ever.
When you account for battery storage and the value of energy security, the economic case becomes even stronger.
Can Solar Get Cheaper? No. But Electricity Will Get More Expensive.
We have reached the bottom of the price curve for solar. Raw materials, logistics, labor, permitting, insurance, financing, and skilled trades have reached equilibrium.
Solar cannot get significantly cheaper.
But electricity costs will continue to rise because:
Utilities need to expand generation
New construction is accelerating
Data centers are consuming massive power
Battery manufacturing is exploding
New manufacturing returning to the U.S. requires enormous energy
Grid infrastructure is aging and underfunded
Utilities are already publicly admitting they will not have enough power to support the increased demand. Building new generation plants takes years. Solar can be installed in weeks.
The only scalable, resilient, and immediate solution is decentralized solar and storage.
The Three Essential Needs Never Change
It does not matter what is happening in the economy. It can be booming. It can be in recession. High inflation or low inflation. Good times or difficult times.
We always need:
Housing
Food
Energy
You need a place to live.
You need food to eat.
You need energy to move, refrigerate, cook, communicate, work, and survive a hurricane.
Solar provides energy.
Batteries provide security.
Batteries Are the Next Wave
For 17 years we have improved panels. Now, the real value is shifting to batteries.
During power outages
During storm season
During rolling blackouts
During price spikes
Batteries provide energy security.
When the grid goes down, your house stays on. Your refrigerator stays cold. Your family stays safe. You do not have to wait in line for gasoline. You do not have to fight with a generator.
In the future, the difference between families with resilience and families without it will be very clear.
2026 and Beyond: What Happens Next?
With the elimination of the federal tax credit after 2025, the market will adjust. We will see:
A temporary surge in installations before the deadline
A short pause as companies adapt
A return to normal driven by pure economics
Solar will not disappear.
It will accelerate.
Why? Because:
Utilities cannot meet demand
Electricity prices are increasing
Homes need resilience
Businesses need stable costs
Extreme weather events are increasing
Manufacturing requires reliable energy
Solar plus batteries is no longer an incentive-based product.
It is a necessity-based product.
The New Value Proposition
In 2026, the conversation becomes simpler:
Fixed cost of energy
Predictable monthly expenses
Resilience during outages
Higher property value
Grid independence
Zero fuel cost
25-year energy hedge
Imagine this:
If 20 years ago you locked gasoline at $1.61 per gallon, would it be a good investment today?
Of course.
Solar allows you to lock your energy cost for the next 25 years.
Conclusion: The Future Is Solar
We began this journey in 2008 without incentives.
We installed systems at $8 per watt.
We helped farms, universities, and businesses reduce cost and gain reliability.
Today we install systems at $2.75 per watt.
We add batteries.
We protect families.
We protect businesses.
We deliver energy security.
The tax credit was a chapter.
Not the story.
The story has always been energy and resilience.
In 2026 we will no longer talk about a 30% incentive.
We will talk about:
safety
reliability
fixed costs
and independence
Solar is not a luxury.
Solar is not a trend.
Solar is not a political idea.
Solar is one of life’s three essentials:
where you live, what you eat, and the energy that powers it all.
We are ready for 2026.
We have been ready since 2008.
